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Tuesday,
October 25, 2005
The
West Rim Shuffle - I
was up at the Grand Canyon on Sunday, for an annual trek that I do
with friends and colleagues. This year we decided on a hike down
the Hermit Trail to Dripping Springs. Cool pictures and
travelogue comments will follow soon. But, here is how our day
broke down - 6.5 hours hiking in the canyon and 5 hours in
transit. Three hours of this transiting time was spent in cars
on the round trip from Flagstaff to the Bright Angel Lodge, at the
South Rim Village in Grand Canyon, which covers some 160+ miles.
The other 2 hours was spent waiting for and riding the West
Rim Shuttle, covering about 16 miles (round trip). It is
just astounding how poor the transportation infrastructure is in the
park and how much resistance there is to sensible planning in this
regard. For instance ...
1.
Why is the West Rim closed to traffic during off-peak hours? Over
time, the amount of days in a year when you can drive your own vehicle
out along the West Rim Drive has been shrinking. Currently, the
road is only open from December through February, and I can well
imagine that it won't be long before even that is no longer
true. I can appreciate the fact that during the daily peak in
visitation, say between 10 a.m. and 4 p.m., that the road and
available parking are insufficient to accommodate the visitors, and
their vehicles, that would like to use it. But, that is not true
at 7 a.m., nor at 8 p.m. So, why, even during the busiest times
of the year, isn't the road opened to the general public during
off-peak hours? It would seem an easy task to build a gate that
would stop letting vehicles in, but still allow vehicles to exit, even
once buses do start up during the day. Many years ago, the park
improved the parking at the Hermit Trailhead, but that is now only
available to overnight backpackers and not to day users. Quite a
waste of this available resource.
2.
Why is the bus so hiker-unfriendly?
Well, in fact, it is people-unfriendly. From the hard plastic
seats, that are contoured to exactly the opposite shape of your spine,
to the placement of seats over the wheel wells, it is anything but a
pleasant ride. Add to that the lack of any space for packs, and
you can easily feel like a sardine squeezed in here. This is
made even worse when people have to stand.
3.
Why is the service frequency so poor?
Even at this late date in the season, we were in packed-to-the-brim
buses. On the trip out to Hermit, after waiting a half hour, we
got on the bus and the driver announced that we all had to have seats
or we'd have to wait for the next bus! Frustration seems to be a
concept that eludes officials at the Grand Canyon. On the way
back from Hermit's Rest, at about 4:30 p.m., there were people
standing for most of the ride back to the village. And, there
were people that couldn't get on this bus and had to wait for the next
one. Some may argue that this just proves that there are too
many visitors to the Grand Canyon. Nonsense - no matter how
many, or how few, visitors there are, if the park provides an
insufficient number of buses, they will always be crowded.
4.
Why is the West Rim Drive in such bad shape?
The park has collected over $100 million dollars in fee demonstration
money, which is supposed to be used to fix up the park, yet they
refuse to use the money this way. This road is so bumpy that one
has a difficult time carrying on a conversation on the bus. I am
sure that part of the problem is the quality of the bus, but a bigger
problem is the quality of the road. It is only 8 miles long and
probably hasn't ever been repaved since it was first put in.
5.
What could be done to improve this situation:
Repave and improve
the West Rim Drive.
Improve and expand
the parking along the West Rim Drive.
Build a loop that
connects from Hermit's Rest to Maswik Lodge, bypassing the
viewpoints. [This
would be a boon to locals and hikers just interested in getting to
HR. And, this could be kept open even when buses are used on the
viewpoints road.]
Keep the West Rim
Drive open to private vehicles as many days, and hours of the day, as
possible.
The bus service
should be made up of small buses that run at a high service frequency.
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Saturday,
October 22, 2005
Blog
Roundup -
Here are some interesting stories floating around the blogosphere...
The Coyote
Blog has a nice piece on "Free
Camping" where he discusses the odd public perception that
camping should be free. I have no problem with paying for
services rendered, and at these campgrounds you are getting plenty of
services. It is untenable to expect taxpayers to support one's
outdoor addiction in this way. And, even while I have argued for
Free Hiking in the Grand
Canyon and I oppose the fees being charged for backcountry permits, I
have long argued that the park service should charge for the improved
campgrounds (Bright Angel, Cottonwood, Indian Garden and even, to a
lesser extent, at Hermit Creek). If the park were limited to
charging just for improved campgrounds, rather than allowed to charge
all backpackers, then maybe they'd get their act together and build
decent campgrounds at Clear Creek, Tanner Rapids, Hance Rapids,
Grandview, Hermit Rapids, Thunder River and Deer Creek. I would
be happy to pay for those services (but, not those stinky vault
toilets!).
Over at Jackalope
Pursuivant is a comment titled "Too
Cruel to Contemplate" in which he opines on the folly of
trying to re-create the romantic life at Fort
Clatsop, built by members of the Lewis & Clark Expedition for
the winter of 1805-1806 in Oregon. Quoting from diaries written
at the time, one gets much more of a sense of pain and suffering than
they do of "romance"!
Spectregunner,
over at the Computer
Curmudgeon has a great review, in his post "An
Education Farce," of the recent case of a student getting
into trouble at school because he uses a glucose monitoring device
frequently throughout the day. The kit includes a small needle -
shorter than a thumbtack - which violated school rules. I think
my favorite line from the post is, "I also won't ask how it is that the very people who are entrusted with teaching our youth how to think seem so incapable of doing so themselves."
To me, the major problem here, besides an out of control tort system,
is the collectivization of education. If we could free up this
system to encourage competition, we might not be faced with so many
"farces."
Tyler Cowen at the
Marginal Revolution
offers up some suggestions for how airplanes can be more easily loaded
up for take-off (How petty can my worries get?).
Although United Airlines is considering a window-middle-aisle
ordering, Tyler's suggestion that incentives could accomplish the
desired results raises the question of why it is so difficult to
employ simple economic reasoning to our everyday problems. After
all, being rewarded for "correct" behavior (getting quickly
into your seat) is standard economic logic, but it's hardly rocket
science.
Laura, at the Rings
of Benzene, has a super commentary on how political correctness
in higher education serves nobody. In her post, " Diversity:
Key to Success" she takes to task the University of Arizona
administration and their attempt to pursue diversity rather than
education. Here at NAU, I have heard the president say that he
wants every student in Arizona to attend college and that every
student that attends NAU should graduate. Oh, and by the way, we
will do this without lowering standards. No, that wasn't his
annual April Fools Day speech, but maybe it should have been.
The problem with higher education, especially if taxpayer funded, is
that there are extremely weak incentives to actually produce
"educated" students. Instead, we are encouraged to
produce "matriculated" students. The really good
students that I see have a strong personal motivation to learn and
succeed, despite the system.
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Thursday,
October 20, 2005
At
NAU - Insanable is Attainable! -
The new religion on the campus of Northern Arizona University is
“sustainability.” For those of you who don’t know what
sustainable really means, you’re in good company, because, as it
turns out, it doesn’t really mean anything. Oh, sure, the
proponents of sustainability will tell you that it means that we
“live in harmony with the world.” But, that’s just another
way of saying that they don’t know what it means either. After
all, who is to define "harmony?" I define it as big
steel and glass buildings that dominate the landscape and extol the
virtues of human ingenuity. But, I don't think everyone else
defines it that way.
Think about it for a minute, which is more than anyone at NAU seems to
have done. Think about it, that is. For a minute.
What is “sustainable?” Well, absolutely nothing. I'm
not exaggerating - it means absolutely nothing. It is, at its
root, a fundamental contradiction of all known physical laws. The
universe began with the Big Bang, at least insofar as I understand the
field of cosmology, which, unlike the field of cosmetology, doesn’t
require a state
license to practice. Our planet has undergone numerous
changes to get to where we are today, and it will continue to change
right up until the time the sun transforms into a red giant and turns
the Earth into toast. Yes, even the sun is not sustainable.
“Sustainability” is really just a cover for those who oppose
change, fight development, and detest individuality. They seek
to control our every decision, deciding what to eat, how much water to
use and when we can turn our lights on. They are, what Virginia
Postrel calls, “stasists.” They are the people she wrote
about in The Future
and Its Enemies.
At NAU, a
“Sustainability
Pledge” is being circulated around
campus. Although not long, it includes the promise to "turn off water when brushing my teeth and while soaping in the shower."
Hey, I have a good idea - why don't we just go back to the good ol'
days of the fifteenth century and stop taking showers altogether!
Soap? Who needs soap? And, who needs toothpaste?
When all of our teeth fall out, we can just fashion new ones out of
the wood from the trees that the Forest Service burns every year in this
area. Brilliant! We not only use less resources, we
"enhance" our sustainability by using more local
resources. Hey, third world, watch out, because we're coming at
ya!
This pledge is being "sustained" by the NAU Campus Sustainability Steering Committee
(CSSC), made up of students, faculty and staff. And, they seem
to be very busy bees, having formed ten task forces to " conserve natural resources and reduce expenses while enhancing the university’s educational goals and workplace values."
There is even a master
plan, which includes goals ranging from incentivizing faculty to
"ride in
hybrid cars to campus"
and introducing "sustainability
issues into the curriculum"
to require local "produce
at campus banquets"
and training faculty in "sustainability
issues."
I don't have any particular issue with reducing expenses at the
university - goodness knows we waste a lot of taxpayer money up here
besides just that wasted by the CSSC. But, there is a
credibility issue at stake here. There is no effort to truly
reduce expenses, only to reduce particular expenses. For
example, while the new
research building may reduce electricity costs, it is not at all
clear that it would pass any reasonable cost-benefit analysis.
That is, the additional costs that go into its planning and
construction may not be compensated for by the decreased cost of
utilities. Virtually all of the items in the "master
plan" strike me as raising overall costs, not lowering them.
One also must wonder how it is that we, at NAU, have so much time on
our hands that we can put together a task force to study the issue of
soaping up in the shower, and the resources to create a campaign to
stop it. My major concerns at NAU are that my students don't
like to read, can't write very well and have questionable math
skills. But, apparently, these are minor issues. Why be
concerned about education when we can ride around in hybrid cars?
Sometimes, when I look at the world around me, it just seems like a
distorted, twisted, chaotic mess, where insanity rules and logic,
reason and sensibility have been buried with the old soup bones in the
backyard. And, while the madness can't last forever, it
certainly can last for a long time, especially if the taxpayer is
footing the bill.
There is a better way. We can use markets. Markets like
low costs. Markets thrive on low costs. Markets abhor the
waste of resources, because it cuts into profits. If we really
cared about higher education, and I don't think "we" really
do, we would urge the state legislature to end the funding of the
three state universities, instead providing students with a grant that
they can take with them to the college or university of their
choosing. Even more could be done, but that would be a start.
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Wednesday,
October 19, 2005
Old
Faithful Deserves More
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Of
the monies received by “the three ‘icon’ parks of the
West – Grand Canyon, Yellowstone, and Yosemite … [in] FY
06, Yellowstone garnered 41% … Yosemite … 33% … and the
Grand Canyon … only 28% ... The
disparity becomes even more pronounced – especially with
Yellowstone – when one looks at the capital funding
comparisons.”
Deborah
Tuck, President, Grand Canyon National Park Foundation
October
13, 2005 - Subcommittee Hearings - Flagstaff, AZ |
At
the Congressional subcommittee hearings held
last week in Flagstaff, Ms. Tuck did an admirable job of raising
alarms about how the sky was falling up at Grand Canyon. In
listening to her, I wondered whether the canyon would just disappear
in coming weeks, months, or years, without "adequate"
federal funding. Of course, it won't. Disappear, that
is. Well, not for millions of years. In geologic terms, I
suppose we could say that the canyon is eroding faster than federal
monies during a recession.
Still, I was struck by the comparison Ms.
Tuck made to Yellowstone. She was none too subtle in demanding
that funding for these "icon" parks was distorted merely
because it wasn't equal. I have worked at the Grand Canyon, on
both rims, and have been hiking there for over 25 years. And,
Grand Canyon is no Yellowstone. Of course it is true that Yellowstone
gets more
money. And, especially, for capital projects. The park is
not only huge, but visitors have access to most of the park, unlike
Grand Canyon. At Yellowstone, there are over 370
miles of paved roads - Grand Canyon probably has 60 miles.
Yellowstone has eight
visitor centers, a wide variety of landscapes and large megafauna
populations. There are substantial numbers of people that visit
the park in the winter and lots of camping opportunities available in
the summer. At Grand Canyon, there are three campgrounds - at
the South Rim Village, at Desert View, and on the North Rim. At
Grand Canyon, park officials have been closing down unpaved roads,
prohibiting access to more remote portions of the park - the Boundary
road and the Cape Solitude road, neither even accessible to bike
riders! The Grand Canyon is much more visitor-unfriendly than is
Yellowstone. Quite frankly, I am amazed that the Grand Canyon
gets such a large share of the funding for these "icon"
parks. Oh, yes, and despite the raw visitation figures, it
doesn't take too much reflection to figure out that tourists to
Yellowstone stay in that park much longer than do tourists to Grand
Canyon.
So, hooray for Yellowstone. Keep up the
good work. Keep catering to the visitors and show us what a real
national park can be all about. Maybe your lessons will seep
into the consciousness of the park officials that mismanage the Grand
Canyon.
Related reading:
Grand
Canyon's Bass Trail - Visitors Discouraged
Grand Canyon:
Access-Challenged
Parking
at Grand Canyon
No Canyon
Geologist - So What?
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Tuesday,
October 18, 2005
Y a City
Function? - In
its usual fit of "government can't be too big, nor too
generous" mindset, the editors of the Daily
Sun have opined that the city government of Flagstaff should sit
down and work together with the YMCA in building a recreational
facility that would be better than the sum of two parts. While
there is a certain amount of superficial appeal to this notion, it
still begs the question of why the city is even in the business of
building, maintaining and supporting recreational facilities in the
first place.
It is interesting to note that the YMCA has
promised to raise a few million dollars to fund its facility.
This should put to rest the notion that private arrangements can't be
made to fulfill this "need." In fact, if the city
hadn't decided to spend taxpayers money as well, perhaps the Y would
have been able to raise even more money!
The editorial laments that, failing to work
together, may have "cost" us such fundamental projects like
"an indoor
running track or an even larger and deeper pool for competition divers
and kayakers."
Excuse me for asking, but exactly what theory of government supports
the use of taxpayer funds for kayakers? And, here at 7,000 feet,
with a city government that restricts my water usage, the paper also
cries out for "water
exercise classes for seniors."
If we can just apply a little common sense here - often in short
supply at the Daily Sun and always in short supply at City Hall - it
isn't too much of a stretch to conclude that seniors, competition
divers and kayakers should pay for their own recreation.
In a final fit of nonsense, the editorial
notes that "with
the city's rapid population growth ... we see the demand for indoor
recreation growing much faster than the [private, for-profit athletic]
clubs are likely to be able to accommodate."
Yikes! If the editors were dogs, I roll up this particular
editorial and give them a whack across the snout, with a couple of
"Bad doggie" admonitions. The use of tax money to
compete with private firms, whether for-profit or not, cannot be a
legitimate role of government. Otherwise, they would be involved
in everything from housing to autoplexes to rebates on toilets and
washing machines. Uh oh . . .
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Sunday,
October 16, 2005

Warbirds Flyover (click
on picture to see a larger image)
Prescott
Air Fair 2005 -
Yesterday, the family headed out for Prescott to see the annual
airshow they put on - Arizona Skyfest 2005. Lots of cool old
WWII planes, many flying throughout the day. The highlight had
to be the Warbird Flyovers - pictured above. They included a
B-17, DC-3, fighters (including the Mustang and Sea Fury) and trainers
(besides American, there were also some Chinese!). We were
treated to quite a few aerobatic shows and some jet flying late in the
day, including the only privately-owed and flown F-4 and a working MiG
fighter. To read more and see more photos follow this link to
"Prescott
Air Fair 2005."
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Rob
Harrison's Zlin wows the crowd.
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The only
privately owned F-4 lands.
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The MiG17
flew late in the afternoon.
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Click
on any picture to see a larger image. |
For more photos
and information on military planes go to these resources:
Warbird
Alley
National
Museum of the United States Air Force
Prescott
Air Fair
Fixed Wing Gunships
(by Arizona blogger, spectregunner)
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Friday,
October 14, 2005
Yesterday, a small
congressional delegation held a meeting at the Flagstaff City
Hall. It was the Subcommittee on Criminal Justice, Drug Policy
and Human Resources. It's topic was "Management of the
National Parks and the Parks of the Southwest." ??! Yeah, I
don't get it either. The chairman, Rep. Mark Souder
(R-Illinois), tried to explain how this all makes sense, but I never
really got past his mentioning that this was the same subcommittee
that heard from Mark McGuire on steroid use in baseball.
Nonetheless, this meeting raised many issues about which I would like
to blog, which will likely get posted up in many parts, this being the
first.
No Canyon
Geologist - So What? -
As is often true in politics, proponents of some particular position cite
an anomalous story which has the effect of shocking people into supporting
their position. Meeting in Flagstaff, as part of a study of
management issues in the National Parks, Chairman Mark Souder remarked
that, on the floor of Congress, a representative would never say that XYZ
National Monument is underfunded, because nobody else cares about
XYZ. Instead, they will rail about how the "crown jewels"
are underfunded - Yellowstone, Grand Canyon, Yosemite. Then, by
extension, so is every park and monument, including XYZ.
At this meeting, we had plenty of this kind of
rhetoric, especially from Deborah Tuck, President of the Grand Canyon
Foundation. Her group seems to do "good" work. They
raise money and spend it on projects of varying levels of worth. For
instance, they spend money on removing "invasive" species below
the rim - pulling weeds (well, some are trees). I believe that is a
waste of time, energy and effort - sort of an attempt to deny the forces
of evolution and nature - but, if private money is used, it doesn't bother
me. Of course, eventually, "invasive" species will become
local species, and then we'll probably have to spend tax dollars to
protect them! I do think that the money raised by the GCF would be
better spent cutting down the trees and bushes that grow along the canyon
rim between the El Tovar and the Bright Angel lodges, to restore the
scenic views. But, then, probably the park should be doing that.
But, what about empty rhetoric? Well, Ms.
Tuck likes to note that "there is no geologist on staff at the Grand
Canyon" as her particular way to indict the funding for Grand
Canyon. [Testimony presented to the subcommittee.] At first
glace, this seems damning. However, upon even the briefest of
reflection one should be thinking, "So what?" That there
are no geologists on the park staff doesn't mean that there aren't any
geologists studying the Grand Canyon. That, of course, is the
unstated inference. And, it isn't difficult to start identifying
where geologists are that do study the Grand Canyon. For instance,
just a few miles from my home, in Flagstaff, is an office of the U.S.G.S.
- the U.S. Geological Survey. They have plenty of geologists up
there, and some are famous for their studies of the Grand Canyon.
Likewise, at Northern Arizona University, here in Flagstaff, and
universities in Utah. That's where the geologists are. There
is no reason for them to be employed by the NPS at Grand Canyon.
This critique of a lack of geologists in the
park, by Ms. Tuck, is part of an overall critique of inadequate funding on
science in the park. Yet, her argument is specious. That there
are few archeologists and biologists at Grand Canyon doesn't mean that
research work in these areas is correspondingly meager. It just
means that the work is done by researchers at other institutions.
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Thursday,
October 13, 2005
Charters
- Free to Choose -
A recent story in the Daily Sun
bemoaned the lack of diversity in the student population of
Flagstaff’s many charter schools. The intent of the article,
and the follow-up editorial, reflected the old-fashioned attitude of
centralization and control and could have been written by any union
hack at the NEA. Local school district Superintendent Kevin
Brown argues that the charters create “de
facto segregation.” The paper claims that failing to
provide free transportation makes charters “exclusionary.”**
And, a suspect academic from ASU decries that charters “have
the luxury to teach in a way to maximize” student
achievements, as if that was a bad thing. It just goes to show that
behind every silver lining there must be a cloud somewhere.
The
notion that all kids should be thrown together in a lockstep
formation, with the drumbeat of social justice beating over their
heads is symptomatic of everything conservatives despise about the
liberal “it-takes-a-village” mentality that celebrates
collectivization, and its attendant mediocrity, over the ability of
people, in general, and parents, in particular, to make choices for
themselves and their children. Instead of degrading the charter
school experience, we should be enthusiastically embracing the right
to choose. In the long run, competition in the field of
education will do more to help educate America’s children than
will a continued dependence on a system whose incentive is to
marginalize individual achievements and “level the playing field”
to the point where everyone is the same, but nobody succeeds.
How
out of the mainstream is this attitude of bashing charters?
Well, the paper’s own politically diverse “virtual board”
universally rejected the “de facto segregation” charge, and were
grateful that parents have choices that didn’t exist just a few
years ago.
** By
the way, when did free transportation become part of the entitlement
to a public education? I raised this issue earlier in Bus-stop!
Recommended
reading: This
attitude of making the educational system a tool of questionable
"social justice" reminded me of Ayn Rand's novella,
Anthem. It is available completely on-line at noblesoul.
Aside from hiking in the Grand Canyon, I can't think of a better way
to spend an afternoon.
Additional
resources on charter schools in Arizona:
The Goldwater Institute
has championed school choice for years and has published many reports,
articles and editorials on the topic, including this "Comparison of Traditional Public Schools and Charter Schools
..."
Oh, yes, the
blog title: Free
to Choose was a book (and, later, a TV series) written by Milton
& Rose Friedman.
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Tuesday,
October 11, 2005
Fed
Chairman Harriet Miers?! -
Many years ago, when asked if he were running for President, Newt
Gingrich replied that he wouldn't want the second most powerful job in
the world and that he was holding out for the most powerful job -
Federal Reserve Board Chairman. While tongue-firmly-in-cheek,
there is more than a grain of truth in this observation. The Fed
Chairman (currently, Alan
Greenspan) oversees monetary policy with an eye to economic
stability - largely to prevent creeping inflation and avoid prolonged
recessions. The Fed Chairman operates independently of the
executive and legislative branches, with only the requirement to
periodically report to Congress. While the Fed Chairman should
enjoy the President's trust, they serve in this position for a four
year term, and, if they prove able, can be reselected many
times. In Greenspan's case, he was selected by Reagan, and then
reselected by Bush I, by Clinton and by Bush II. Greenspan's
fourteen year term to the Board expires on January 31, 2006, and he
intends to retire from the Fed at that time. There are still two
years remaining in the current term as Chairman, so, his replacement
will only serve, as Chairman, for these two years before being
considered for reselection to that post.
Who should replace Greenspan? Well, it
is important that this person be a bit "stealthy" as even benign
utterances by the Fed Chairman can create financial
tsunamis. And, we haven't had a woman as the head of the Federal
Reserve, so how about . . . Harriet Miers? Brilliant! This
way, President Bush gets to backtrack on his sorry
Supreme Court choice and claim that he is elevating Ms. Miers to an
even more important job! Then, he can nominate Janice Rogers
Brown and we can begin the battle royale. Are you ready to
rumble?
Related:
In
Her Words -
Janice Rogers Brown
Janice
Rogers Brown for SCOTUS
Related, but
in a totally off- the- wall sort of way, is the hilarious Irrational
Exuberance "animutation" flash video by Veloso. I
guess I missed the Yatta craze, and maybe I'm better for that.
Still, you can watch this at albinoblacksheep.
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Sunday,
October 9, 2005
Inner
Basin Aspens -
Ah, fall is in the air, and it is well past time to take a trek into
the Inner Basin of the San Francisco Peaks, not only for its own sake,
but also to catch the changing of the aspens. We had some rain
last night (at least, in town), but the conditions were great up in
this area. The Inner Basin had some snow - fine, granulated
crystals, but it was still cold and they hadn't melted. Also,
the northwest face of Agassiz had a sprinkling of the white stuff that
contrasted nicely with the golden aspen leaves and green pines.
Many trees in the Inner Basin had already dropped all their leaves,
although there were groups still fully leafed out. For more
pictures and some extended comments, follow this link to Thar's
Gold in Them Hills - Hiking to the Inner Basin.
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Mt. Agassiz and
Mt. Humphreys (left and right) from Lockett Meadow.
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In many places,
the trail was
covered by fallen aspen leaves.
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Mt. Agassiz
from the Inner Basin with fine snow crystals from last night.
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Click
on any picture to see a larger image. |
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Saturday,
October 8, 2005
Running
on Empty - The Oil Bugaboo -
Take all of the scary post-apocalyptic stories you can think of and
roll them together into one. Give it a voice and you’d have
the prophet-of-doom Richard Heinberg, who recently spoke at NAU on the
topic of the “Coming End of Oil.” Heinberg argues that we
are running out of oil and that, when the end comes, it will be a huge
shock to us all. His solution is to cut back now, and “build
community solidarity” ... whatever that means.
Why is it that there are days when the world
seems to have become a place best described as "Alice in
Wonderland" meets "Spinal Tap?" Clearly, Mr.
Heinberg has an agenda, but I don’t think it extends beyond selling
books and touring the lecture circuit. He certainly understands
nothing about economics, and very little about energy in general, nor
oil, in particular. [His web
site extols his background as a journalist and musician, and notes
that he is “an accomplished violinist and illustrator/book
designer.” So, maybe he doesn’t have the time to study
economics.]
Take,
for example, his general notion that we can just run out of oil.
It can’t happen. The price will rise over time for any truly
exhaustible resource. And, while a government can act to artificially
depress prices, like has been done in Indonesia,
there would be plenty of smart traders, all around the world,
stockpiling oil if we were really headed for the precipice that Mr.
Heinberg describes.
The story of why markets can’t run out of
oil is a simple one. If you really thought that was the case,
then you would be buying oil futures like crazy. That is, if the
market is underpricing oil, you can profit from this by agreeing to
buy oil in the future for a currently determined price. Then,
when we run out, the price will skyrocket and your oil will be worth a
fair chunk of change. And, you don’t even need to be involved
in the exploration of oil, the drilling of wells, the building of
pipelines and distribution facilities, the transport of oil, the
refining of oil or even the marketing of oil. You can act
strictly on your knowledge, or lack thereof.
And,
then there is the story of the tar
pits in Alberta, Canada. You know, the ones with an
estimated one trillion – yes,
that’s one trillion
– barrels of oil socked away in a sticky mess underground.
Fifty years from now I am sure there will be another Richard Heinberg
roaming around with his own story of how the sky is falling and
we’re running out of heavy oil. [That’s what this stuff is
called.] Of course, by then, we might have figured a way to
extract all that oil out of the shales
of western Colorado, Wyoming and Utah with it’s estimated 1.5
trillion barrels of oil.
Local
activist Lisa Rayner, who organized this pretend exercise in pretend
economics, has founded a group calling itself the “Flagstaff Post
Carbon Outpost.” I can only hope that they have well-stocked
their outpost; they’re likely to be there a long time waiting for
this particular apocalypse to arrive.
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Thursday,
October 6, 2005
Cultural
Bigotry - Today
marks the first day in court over a challenge to the Coconino National
Forest's decision
to allow for expansion of the Snowbowl facility, on the San Francisco
Peaks, and to use reclaimed water in making artificial snow. The
challengers are the usual bunch of do-nothings, more or less
participants in the poorly-named Save
the Peaks Coalition. I guess you could call them the
coalition of the unwilling. Unwilling to let anyone do anything
that conflicts with their static view of how the world should
work. Well, maybe "work" is not the right word, since
I am not sure that any of them do. Work, that is. And,
since there is no skiing on the "peaks", I suppose it would
be more accurate if the group was named the "Save the Flanks
Coalition." But, even that begs the question - if we are
trying to save something, what is it, exactly, that would otherwise be
destroyed?
Ah, there is the question! It seems
that the use of snowmaking equipment will "affirm government policy of racial
intolerance and perpetuates the slow murder of Native American cultures
through its decision to allow the desecration of the Sacred San Francisco Peaks,"
according to a member
of the SPC. Funny, I thought that the decision was meant to
allow people to more fully enjoy this natural resource. And,
even though I do not ski, and am not likely to take it up (at least,
not downhill skiing), I don't begrudge others the pleasure they get
from this activity.
What is interesting here is the blatant hypocrisy of the opponents
when it comes to tolerance. While groups like the Flagstaff
Activist Network proclaim to be concerned about cultural
diversity, they are really acting like cultural bullies and are
nothing more than bigots.
Need more evidence? Check out this bumper sticker that is from
the FAN site . . .
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Wednesday,
October 5, 2005
When is a
Judge "Activist?" -
Today's editorial in the Daily Sun argues that conservatives are just
as likely to favor "activist" judges as liberals are.
They cite, by way of example, Scalia and Thomas as being "just as
likely to overrule Congress as the more liberal justices on the high
court." The editorial further compares the complaints from
conservatives about Harriet Miers, nominee for the Supreme Court, as
being tantamount to a political litmus test.
The editors of the Sun have this wrong.
They do not seem to understand the role of judges in general, nor the
Supreme Court in particular. In the latter case, that role is to
uphold the Constitution - essentially to ride rough-shod over
legislatures, at all levels, that try to exert power when it is not
granted in that document. So, when Thomas votes for Raich
(Gonzales v. Raich) and opposes the federal government's attempt to
regulate marijuana use in California, based on the interstate commerce
clause (Thomas asserted that there was no interstate commerce), he is
doing exactly what he should be doing - upholding the
Constitution. That does not make him an "activist"
judge in the sense that it is commonly described. Indeed, the
primary role of a Supreme Court Justice is to decide whether laws
passed by legislatures are constitutional or not. His opinion in
this matter (a minority view in this case) relies on an unwillingness
to find new and exciting interpretations of the Constitution.
That is what "activist" judges do. They create rights
where none exist, justify decisions with an appeal to international
law, which is irrelevant and use the court as a substitute for
legislative action.
Take the abortion rights example. Is
there a constitutional basis for this? Well, Roe v. Wade found
such a right, but it has always been a suspect decision. Yet,
there is a way around the inherent weakness of this decision which the
"choice" lobby hasn't followed up on in the intervening
thirty years. Go to the state legislature and get them to pass a
law that does protect a woman's right to choose. Then, Roe v.
Wade becomes a moot point - if the Constitution does not grant the
right to an abortion, then neither does it deny such a right, and it
is up to state and localities to decide the matter.
The "political litmus" test that
Miers, or anyone, should be subject to, is whether they really do
believe that the Constitution is worth upholding, in a strict
constructionist manner, or whether its interpretation should change
with the political winds. It is not a question of being
"nonpartisan," as the editors of the Sun would have it.
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Tuesday,
October 4, 2005
No
Taxation for Representation -
In case you weren't already tuned in, Flagstaff has a Film
Commissioner! And, apparently, we're all darn proud of the job
she's doing! The local paper and the local TV station are all
over the story about how a film crew is set to spend a few weeks here,
filming a low budget sci fi movie about Bigfoot. Can we possibly
contain our excitement? Why, this will really put Flagstaff on
the map! Well, so says the film Commish. Funny, you'd
think we would already be basking in the reflected glory of Hollywood,
with such films as Planet of the Apes (the original and the remake),
Starman, Forrest Gump, Midnight Run (or, was it Midnight Express? I
get them mixed up), Broken Arrow and Evolution having been partly
filmed here, or close by. Still, a flick about Bigfoot will
probably push us over the top in terms of making Flag-town a
blossoming film center.
Now, would someone please e
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